October 26, 2020
It should come as no surprise to Orion’s brokers that housing in many parts of the United States has experienced a ‘’V’ shaped recovery following the Fed’s support of lower mortgage rates as well as a desire from many city dwellers to move out to the suburbs for more space in response to Covid-19. But now what, give that we have very few days until the election?
Given a very tight supply, housing is poised to carry its momentum through the fall and well into the winter months. Our brokers know that this is historically a time when sales typically begin to slow, even in warmer parts of the United States like the Southwest for Florida. During the previous two recessions, building permits and housing starts peaked before the downturn and following the 2008 – 2009 recession, continued to decline for years.
While there is resurgence in Covid cases which may cause a pullback for some consumer spending, it is not expected to reach a level that would reverse the ongoing recovery. Last week we learned that weekly claims for unemployment from the previous week remain above their peak during the last recession, but they are trending lower.
The debate over further economic stimulus continues and is not likely to be resolved prior to the U.S. election although the underlying recovery appears to be showing enough momentum to continue whether or not a bill is passed. And this reminds us that politics is still front and center in the media and public opinion. Early voting has surpassed historical levels, and should continue. The debates are done, and the number of undecided votes is probably at a bare minimum.
We are sure that Orion’s brokers will see some surprises with the economy and the voting. There always are. But this is the reason that our AE’ continue to help brokers help their clients regardless of interest rates, political climate, or the housing market. Orion “keeps its knees bent” and will continue to do so.