Orion’s brokers and our AEs know that mortgage rates, and interest rates in general, change every day, and even during the day. Last week they hit the highest rates since mid-February. Our AEs are being asked, “Why?’

Mortgage rates have been volatile for a few weeks now. Bond yields spiked higher mid-week when President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on dozens of countries went into effect. Yields dropped when Trump lowered the tariff rate on most countries hours later. Tariffs on Chinese imports, however, currently stand at145 percent… but who knows where that will be tomorrow, or next week, or next month.

Fortunately, the inflation numbers have been relatively tame. But those numbers are entirely overshadowed by the daily, or hourly, tariff announcements coming from Washington DC. For example, last Friday, another monthly report on consumer sentiment came in substantially lower than expected. The expectation for inflation jumped from 5% in March to 6.7% in April, the highest level since1981. It was the second lowest consumer sentiment on record since 1951! One would think that rates would move lower since it is an indication that our economy is not strong. Yet the bond market is more focused on the trade war the United States is waging against other nations.

Unfortunately, all of this comes right in the heart of the all-important spring housing market. Orion’s brokers know that for most consumers, a home is their single largest investment and those “on the fence” about buying or refinancing now have not been given any comfort about interest rates or the economy in general. When there is this much uncertainty, people tend to hunker down until there is more clarity. Buying a home fits into this category.

But Fannie Mae now expects mortgage rates to taper down to 6.3 percent this year and 6.2percent in 2026. Mark Palim, Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, explains the underlying economic factors that shifted mortgage rate projections. “We expect the recent pullback in mortgage rates will provide a small boost to home sales this year,” Palim said. “While our latest forecast calls for a period of modestly slower economic growth, historically, interest rates have been the most important driver of home sales."

Many homebuyers have been waiting for housing inventory to rise and mortgage rates to fall before making the commitment to buy a home. This positive update could bring much-needed optimism and confidence to the housing market.

Orion’s management reminds our broker clients that the bond markets and interest rates change every day. But what doesn’t change is our reputation and service levels. So regardless of what is happening in Washington DC or with interest rates, Orion and our AEs continue to offer superior products at competitive rates, and in the long run that will help our clients more than predicting interest rates.